Several of the states expected to play an outsized role in the 2026 midterm elections are also among those paying the largest tariff bills, according to an analysis of U.S. Census trade data compiled by Trade Partnership Worldwide and published this week.
With control of Congress at stake and inflation-sensitive voters focused on everyday costs, the overlap between competitive political terrain and high import duties is drawing new attention to how tariff policy affects prices and state economies.
Tariff bills concentrate in the biggest import states
The analysis estimates that California and Texas recorded the largest tariff totals, at about $38 billion and $21 billion respectively, reflecting the scale of imports moving through major ports and industrial supply chains.
Other states with large estimated tariff bills include Michigan ($13 billion) and Georgia ($12 billion), alongside Illinois ($9.6 billion), Ohio ($6.5 billion), Pennsylvania ($6.3 billion), North Carolina ($5 billion), South Carolina ($5.2 billion) and Kentucky ($4 billion).
Across states, the Census-based compilation puts total tariffs paid at about $199 billion over the period examined, with more than $134 billion attributed to states central to this year’s election map.
Why tariffs can show up in household costs
Tariffs are duties levied on imported goods and are paid at the border by U.S. importers. Economists and several recent analyses have found that a large share of the cost is typically borne domestically through higher import prices and downstream markups rather than absorbed by foreign exporters.
That dynamic matters in states with large manufacturing, auto, logistics and retail footprints, where imported inputs and finished goods are deeply embedded in supply chains.
Midterm stakes sharpen the political focus
All 435 House seats are up for election in November 2026, and the Senate map is also in play, making the economy a central theme for candidates in both parties as they campaign on affordability.
The tariff-heavy states highlighted in the analysis include several that have featured in recent cycles as competitive battlegrounds, especially where trade-exposed industries and consumer price pressures intersect.
Federal tariff revenue jumps as Supreme Court decision looms
The state-by-state figures come as federal tariff collections have risen sharply since the administration’s latest round of trade measures. Duties collected in January totaled about $30.4 billion, up roughly 275% from a year earlier, bringing fiscal-year tariff revenue to about $124 billion—more than triple the prior pace, according to compiled Treasury data reported this week.
The policy also faces a high-stakes legal test at the Supreme Court, which heard arguments in November 2025 in consolidated challenges to the administration’s authority to impose broad tariffs under emergency powers and has not yet issued a ruling.
While the court deliberates, states with the biggest import flows—and the largest estimated tariff bills—remain at the center of both the economic debate and the political contest heading into November.