Reds Sit Atop NL Central, But Advanced Metrics Warn of Bullpen Regression
The Cincinnati Reds have bolted out of the gate in 2025, posting an 18-10 record that places them first in the NL Central — but a troubling gap between their surface-level pitching stats and underlying performance indicators suggests their fast start may not be sustainable.
The Reds’ bullpen currently carries the second-lowest ERA in MLB at 2.59, and the unit has been perfect in one-run games and extra-inning contests. That kind of clutch performance has been central to Cincinnati’s early-season success.
But beneath those results lies a more alarming figure: a bullpen xFIP of 4.98, which ranks among the five worst in the majors. xFIP — Expected Fielding Independent Pitching — strips away factors outside a pitcher’s control, such as defense and batted-ball luck, to estimate true underlying performance. A gap of more than two runs between ERA and xFIP is a significant red flag in modern baseball analysis.
What the Numbers Are Telling Us
Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller ranks Cincinnati’s bullpen third in his latest power rankings, but he flagged the disconnect directly. The Reds “entered play on Sunday with an MLB-best bullpen ERA of 2.59, but a fifth-worst bullpen xFIP of 4.98 — and promptly got tagged for five earned runs while blowing a lead against the Detroit Tigers,” Miller wrote.
That blown lead against Detroit may be an early preview of what regression looks like in practice. When ERA and xFIP diverge this sharply, the ERA almost always moves toward the xFIP — not the other way around.
Offense and Division Context Offer Some Cushion
The Reds aren’t relying on pitching alone. Sal Stewart has anchored an offense that has performed well through April, and the team is coming off a postseason appearance that demonstrated organizational depth.
The NL Central itself is historically competitive this season — it is currently the only division in MLB without a single team below .500, making every game consequential and every win harder to come by.
Cincinnati’s 18-10 record is genuinely impressive in that context. The question is whether the bullpen can sustain even a fraction of its current production as the sample size grows and the underlying numbers begin to assert themselves.
The Bottom Line
The Reds are a legitimate NL Central contender, and their results through April deserve credit. But a bullpen ERA that outpaces its xFIP by over two runs is not a sign of elite pitching — it is a sign of unsustainable variance. Fans should enjoy the ride while preparing for a correction.